It is not significantly troublesome to argue that Quibi, the streaming video service invented by longtime leisure government Jeffrey Katzenberg and former HP Enterprise and eBay CEO Meg Whitman, is a flawed concept.

When entrepreneurs construct firms, it is customary process to establish an issue that must be solved first. The extra urgent the issue, the higher the concept’s potential. Constructing one other subscription video streaming service does not clear up a transparent drawback. There are dozens and dozens of streaming companies. There are arguably way too many already.

Quibi announced Wednesday it’ll launch April 6 for $4.99 per thirty days with adverts or $7.99 per thirty days with out. Quibi might be distinctive from different streaming companies as a result of it’ll create “a real partnership between expertise and inventive,” Tom Conrad, Quibi’s chief product officer, said today at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Quibi’s pitch is to make interesting content material to millennials seeking to watch longform content material damaged down into shorter bites on cellular gadgets. Quibi showcased its “Turnstyle” function, which can permit customers to show their smartphone or pill to observe content material in each portrait and panorama modes.

“There is a lengthy historical past in Hollywood of expertise creating new methods for storytellers to inform their tales,” Whitman mentioned in an interview with CNBC’s Julia Boorstin Wednesday, citing the theater, motion pictures and tv as new mediums at sure instances in historical past. “What we introduced at present at CES is a brand new expertise platform that’s designed to make viewing in your cellphone a totally new and distinctive expertise.”

Nevertheless it arguably is not. Verizon already tried to create a mobile-first video service for millennials again in 2015. Dubbed Go90, Verizon tried to make YouTube-but-better video particularly for younger individuals watching on their telephones.

Turns on the market wasn’t an enormous viewers for what Verizon was promoting. Verizon shut down Go90 in July of final 12 months.

“The trade by no means actually understood its technique,” Peter Csathy, founding father of media advisory agency Creatv Media, advised Digiday final 12 months. “However, they fortunately took their cash, with most reporting that Go90 overpaid for his or her content material.”

The excellent news for Quibi is Go90 already occurred. Katzenberg and Whitman can particularly look to Verizon’s failed try at manufacturing cellular content material for proof on what to not do. Katzenberg has steadily famous that lower than 10% of Netflix viewing happens through a cellphone — proof, he mentioned, that Quibi’s enterprise mannequin is essentially totally different than firms showcasing longer kind content material similar to Netflix, Disney+, Hulu and different streaming companies from conventional media firms.

“Our use case we imagine is 7 within the morning till 7 at evening while you’re on the go,” Whitman mentioned. “You are commuting, you are ready at a physician’s workplace, you are ready for pals to affix you for lunch or ready for a gathering to start. At the moment customers are watching practically 80 minutes of video a day on their cellphone, up from six minutes in 2012.”

Katzenberg advised CNBC final 12 months that Quibi is working “in a white area that’s our personal to lose.” However that looks as if a tricky argument to swallow. What white area is that precisely? YouTube and TikTok already provide short-form content material that billions of individuals apparently wish to see. Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Snap provide video and non-video content material meant to be consumed in bite-sized kind.

Is the white area premium content material minimize into chapters? That, too, appears skinny — nothing is stopping individuals from pushing pause on a favourite film or TV present when a gathering begins.

The bull case for Quibi is the shift away from cable TV and towards streaming companies is a rising tide that lifts all boats. The media analysis agency LightShed estimates Quibi will enroll eight million subscribers by the tip of 2020. Some T-Mobile prospects will get Quibi without cost, much like how household plan subscribers get free Netflix, which can assist Quibi’s subscriber rely.

“With shopper thirst for content material growing by the day because the legacy multichannel collapses and time spent on cellular will increase, we imagine uptake of Quibi might be speedy,” LightShed analysts wrote in a note to clients.

Within the streaming wars, eventually, there will be winners and losers. If Quibi stumbles on some hit exhibits, it may be a winner. Should-see content material can pay for a lot of flops. However that is the identical problem each single streaming service has, and Quibi is competing towards deep-pocketed challengers together with Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Disney, AT&T and others for customers’ time and finances.

Whitman mentioned Wednesday she expects Quibi to be worthwhile in additional than two years however fewer than 10. Each Whitman and Katzenberg have had main success with earlier ventures. They’re clearly two very sensible individuals. Betting on Quibi is a guess on them.

My worry is betting towards Quibi looks as if a guess on logic.

(Disclosure: Comcast’s NBC Common is the father or mother firm of CNBC.)

Follow @CNBCtech on Twitter for the latest tech industry news.

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